The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.

Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables sfcWind, tas, pr, tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.

Metric xgboost cnn naive lstm xgboost_custom
mae 0.066 0.077 0.085 0.071 0.088
cor 0.875 0.857 0.833 0.859 0.858
ratio_of_sd 0.856 0.894 0.808 0.943 1.014
KGE 0.811 0.747 0.687 0.801 0.562
amplitude_mae 0.156 0.131 0.220 0.133 0.126
maximum_difference 6.203 6.278 6.287 6.574 6.004
sign_correlation 0.601 0.548 0.597 0.601 0.579
extreme_correlation 0.582 0.645 0.519 0.653 0.645
amount_rainy_hours_mae 1.553 1.537 2.227 1.658 2.623
qqplot_mae 0.021 0.027 0.040 0.018 0.049
acf_mae 0.096 0.071 0.144 0.076 0.097
extremogram_mae 0.061 0.037 0.073 0.036 0.047

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97