The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.
Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a
monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a
predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth
and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.
| Metric | xgboost | cnn | naive | lstm | xgboost_custom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mae | 0.066 | 0.077 | 0.085 | 0.071 | 0.088 |
| cor | 0.875 | 0.857 | 0.833 | 0.859 | 0.858 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.856 | 0.894 | 0.808 | 0.943 | 1.014 |
| KGE | 0.811 | 0.747 | 0.687 | 0.801 | 0.562 |
| amplitude_mae | 0.156 | 0.131 | 0.220 | 0.133 | 0.126 |
| maximum_difference | 6.203 | 6.278 | 6.287 | 6.574 | 6.004 |
| sign_correlation | 0.601 | 0.548 | 0.597 | 0.601 | 0.579 |
| extreme_correlation | 0.582 | 0.645 | 0.519 | 0.653 | 0.645 |
| amount_rainy_hours_mae | 1.553 | 1.537 | 2.227 | 1.658 | 2.623 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.021 | 0.027 | 0.040 | 0.018 | 0.049 |
| acf_mae | 0.096 | 0.071 | 0.144 | 0.076 | 0.097 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.061 | 0.037 | 0.073 | 0.036 | 0.047 |
Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail
extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at
the same time. We are using quant = .97